IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Southland
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.9	#284
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.4	#47
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-2.0	#235

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.0	#311

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.6%	15.6%	7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	14.5	15.5

.500 or above	27.2%	61.1%	26.8%
.500 or above in Conference	61.2%	80.6%	61.0%
Conference Champion	9.1%	21.2%	8.9%
Last Place in Conference	4.7%	2.2%	4.8%

First Four	3.0%	1.0%	3.0%
First Round	6.1%	15.3%	6.0%
Second Round	0.1%	1.6%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Away) - 1.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 6
Quad 3	1 - 4	1 - 10
Quad 4	11 - 8	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	15	@ Baylor	L	63-88	1%
Nov 10, 2019	54	@ Georgetown	L	74-94	3%
Nov 12, 2019	3	@ Duke	L	69-98	0.4%
Nov 17, 2019	220	Arkansas Little Rock	L	78-79	48%
Nov 22, 2019	228	@ California Baptist	L	76-82	29%
Dec 05, 2019	58	@ Wichita St.	L	66-85	5%
Dec 07, 2019	110	@ Utah	L	70-84	11%
Dec 14, 2019	117	@ Pepperdine	L	76-89	12%
Dec 18, 2019	344	Incarnate Word	W	80-70	80%
Dec 21, 2019	291	TX A&M Corpus Christi	W	72-69	61%
Dec 28, 2019	27	@ Marquette	L	68-90	3%
Jan 02, 2020	292	@ Houston Baptist	L	87-89	42%
Jan 04, 2020	316	McNeese St.	W	78-72	68%
Jan 08, 2020	243	@ New Orleans	L	73-78	33%
Jan 11, 2020	186	Sam Houston St.	L	74-76	43%
Jan 15, 2020	290	Stephen F. Austin	W	77-74	61%
Jan 18, 2020	309	@ Nicholls St.	L	78-79	46%
Jan 25, 2020	286	Abilene Christian	W	73-70	60%
Jan 29, 2020	299	SE Louisiana	W	74-70	63%
Feb 01, 2020	347	@ Northwestern St.	W	78-74	64%
Feb 05, 2020	281	@ Lamar	L	75-78	40%
Feb 08, 2020	316	@ McNeese St.	L	75-76	48%
Feb 12, 2020	243	New Orleans	W	76-75	52%
Feb 15, 2020	186	@ Sam Houston St.	L	71-79	26%
Feb 19, 2020	290	@ Stephen F. Austin	L	74-77	41%
Feb 22, 2020	309	Nicholls St.	W	81-76	65%
Feb 29, 2020	286	@ Abilene Christian	L	70-73	40%
Mar 04, 2020	299	@ SE Louisiana	L	71-73	43%
Mar 07, 2020	347	Northwestern St.	W	81-71	80%
Projected Record						12 - 17	11 - 9

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Southland Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.7	1.9	2.3	2.1	1.3	0.5	0.1		9.1	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	1.4	3.1	2.7	1.4	0.5	0.0				9.3	2nd
3rd												0.2	1.7	3.6	2.8	1.0	0.2	0.0					9.4	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	1.6	3.9	2.9	0.8	0.1	0.0						9.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	1.4	4.0	3.3	0.8	0.0								9.5	5th
6th									0.1	0.9	3.4	3.7	1.0	0.0									9.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.7	3.1	3.8	1.0	0.1	0.0									8.7	7th
8th							0.0	0.5	2.3	3.8	1.3	0.1											8.0	8th
9th						0.0	0.4	2.0	3.3	1.4	0.2												7.3	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	1.8	3.1	1.5	0.2	0.0												6.9	10th
11th				0.0	0.3	1.3	2.3	1.7	0.3	0.0													6.0	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	0.5	1.3	1.4	0.9	0.2	0.0														4.4	12th
13th	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0															2.9	13th

Total	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.3	2.6	3.4	5.4	7.4	8.2	9.5	10.2	10.5	10.0	8.9	7.4	5.7	4.0	2.5	1.4	0.5	0.1			Total

Southland Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.1		0.1
19-1	100.0%	0.5		0.5	0.0
18-2	97.7%	1.3		1.2	0.1	0.0
17-3	81.4%	2.1		1.6	0.5	0.0
16-4	59.2%	2.3		1.3	0.8	0.2	0.0
15-5	32.7%	1.9		0.7	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0
14-6	9.6%	0.7		0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	9.1%	9.1		5.5	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.1%		50.3%	50.3%		13.6												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
19-1	0.5%		50.5%	50.5%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.3
18-2	1.4%		39.9%	39.9%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.8
17-3	2.5%		38.9%	38.9%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	0.4	1.6
16-4	4.0%		32.8%	32.8%		15.4														0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	2.7
15-5	5.7%		24.6%	24.6%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.3	1.0	4.3
14-6	7.4%		18.1%	18.1%		15.8															0.0	0.2	1.1	6.1
13-7	8.9%		8.8%	8.8%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.8	8.1
12-8	10.0%		4.7%	4.7%		16.0																0.0	0.5	9.5
11-9	10.5%		2.8%	2.8%		16.0																0.0	0.3	10.2
10-10	10.2%		1.5%	1.5%		16.0																	0.2	10.1
9-11	9.5%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	9.5
8-12	8.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.2
7-13	7.4%																							7.4
6-14	5.4%																							5.4
5-15	3.4%																							3.4
4-16	2.6%																							2.6
3-17	1.3%																							1.3
2-18	0.6%																							0.6
1-19	0.3%																							0.3
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		7.6%	7.6%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	1.9	4.9	92.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%